Finance, Health - Coronavirus Could Cost Australia
The Wuhan coronavirus 2019-nCoV is taking a human toll in China, but financial experts warn it could hurt Australia's economy as well.
UBS Australia is analyzing the issue, and says the China's ban on group travel could directly cost Australia at least AU$1 Billion in services exports. The virus struck at what is normally a big travel season, when high rollers known as "VIPs" were expected by Australia's two big casino operators, Crown and Star.
"We estimate VIP volumes could be down 50 percent with some loss of play from both international and domestic main floor," read the UBS forecast. "We believe this could drag financial year (FY) 2020 EPS (earnings per share) by circa 10 per cent and FY21 EPS by circa 20 percent."
And the loses could go past the Lunar New Year holiday.
"However, if travel disruptions are extended, or expand to cover independent travellers, the cost could be much greater," UBS warned.
Retailers and shopping centers will be hit as well. Not to mention the airlines that aren't carrying as many big spending Asian tourists to our shores. If history repeats itself and travel patterns mirror the 2003 SARS outbreak, UBS said Qantas could lose about $500 Million in earnings while Virgin would miss out on $60 Million. UBS says Sydney Airport could see a 5 percent downgrade in operating cashflow.