New polling shows the leader of France's xenophobic far-right wing Front National party the likely winner of the first round of the French presidential election in April.  But Marine Le Pen could lose in the runoff in May.

The Harris Interactive poll shows Le Pen of the the anti-immigrant and anti-EU party getting 24 percent of the vote.  Centrist Emmanuel Macron of the new Le Marche party would get 21 percent, sending the top two candidates to the runoff.  The poll assumed that a rival centrist would run and siphon votes from Macron; if that candidate stands down, Macron might finish even stronger.

The traditional conservative party, which recently changed its name to The Republicans, trails at 19 percent.  Candidate Francois Fillon is fighting off a series of scandals and ethics violations involving his UK-born wife.  The ruling Socialists are way behind.

The good news for people horrified by the thought of a Front National government comes from the Elabe Poll, which shows Macron beating Le Pen in the runoff by around 63 percent to 37.  Ifop Fiducial puts the spread at 64 - 36.  But even if Macron doesn't advance and Fillon somehow recovers from his plunging fortunes, the polls show Fillon would also beat Le Pen, although by a more narrow margin.