Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his conservative Likud Party appear to have pulled off a stunning upset that went against all of the polling prior to Israel’s election on Tuesday and exit polling data during.  Likud will likely get 30 seats in the Knesset, and the Center-Left Zionist Union is in second place with about 24.

Netanyahu declared a “great victory” achieved “against all odds” that seemed to reverse the last polls before the vote that showed Likud losing seats to the Zionist Union, which said Bibi’s jubiliation was “spin” and “premature”.  And things could get tricky from here.

It will be up to President Reuvin Rivlin to choose which faction gets to try and form the next government, and this could be key.  Rivlin said, “Only a unity government can prevent the rapid disintegration of Israel's democracy and new elections in near future.”  Netanyahu as early as January ruled out a Unity government, claiming the chasm is too wide to reach out to his Center-left rivals. 

There are two important small parties that could decide which of the two biggest vote-getters will form the government.  One is Kulanu, whose leader Moshe Kahlon recently left Likud out of frustration with Netanyahu and formed the party.  Kahlon phoned both leaders without indicating which one would get to be besties with Kulanu’s 10 seats.

The other is the Arab Israeli coalition called “Arab List” which Netanyahu will not work with, but which also didn’t express any enthusiasm for working with the Zionist Union.  Arab List picked up 13 seats in the Knesset, an all time high.

There is precedent for an Israeli president picking a smaller party to form a government, but even if Rivlin phones Herzog, it’s not clear Zionist Union can even cobble together 61 seats for a majority.  A couple of the minor religious parties have allied with the Left in the past, but have been steadily moving right in recent years.

Divisive to the end, Netanyahu offended many voters and alienated allies in the countdown to Tuesday’s ballot.  One of his most perplexing statements was his sudden repudiation of the Two-State Solution that his US allies have been working towards since the 1970s.