Japan is mulling its options in the brave new world created by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent foray in Middle Eastern geopolitics and the reaction of the terrorist group Islamic State (IS), which killed two Japanese hostages and threatened to strike at Japanese nationals wherever they may be.

When Abe went to the Middle East last month, he passed out US$200 million in non-military aid to governments battling against IS, knowing that the militants were holding two Japanese citizens prisoner.  And once IS began threatening the lives of Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto, Tokyo found it had no intelligence or diplomatic influence to directly negotiate with IS, relying on Jordan instead. 

By the time the second hostage was killed, IS made a point in its propaganda video to specifically blame Abe.  Critics fault Abe for even mentioning IS at all.

“We should not be seen succumbing to terrorism, but there is no need for provocation.  We should not send them the wrong message,” said Yukio Edano of the opposition Democrats.

“Abe stressed the aid was for humanitarian reasons and he was right.  But when he originally announced it, he said the money was to help countries ‘contending with IS’ – was that a wise way to phrase it?” asked Tomoaki Iwai, a politics professor at Nihon University in Tokyo.

One of the problems arising from Japan’s inexperience in the region was that it was unaware that two factions inside IS – one in Iraqi, the other in Syria – were vying for control of the hostages and sending out mixed messages through mediators.  The Syrian faction captured the two men and made the initial ransom demand of US$200 Million, equal to the aid Abe was passing out.  But after Tokyo refused to pay and Yukawa was killed, the Iraqi faction took over and demanded that Jordan release a female failed suicide bomber from death row.  When that fell through, the Syrian faction reclaimed control and announced Goto’s execution.